BETHLEHEM, Pa. — On paper, the Lehigh Valley’s rental market appears to be loosening.
New U.S. Census estimates show rental vacancy rates rising sharply in both Lehigh and Northampton counties in 2024, a notable shift after years of historically tight conditions.
But eviction filings tell a far different story — one in which renters still are being pushed out of their homes at rates that exceed the state average.
Together, the data points to a growing disconnect: More units may be coming online in the Lehigh Valley, but affordability and housing stability remain out of reach for many renters, particularly those with lower or moderate incomes.
A vacancy spike — with an asterisk
In Lehigh County, the estimated rental vacancy rate jumped to 6.6% in 2024 — up from 1.8% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2022, according to the Census Bureau's latest American Community Survey data.
Northampton County’s vacancy rate rose to 4.4%, up from 2.6% the year before.
Those increases represent some of the most dramatic year-over-year changes the region has seen in more than a decade.
But housing advocates caution the numbers require careful interpretation.
That caution reflects how the estimates are produced. The survey's one-year data shows rising vacancy rates, but the underlying estimates also carry substantially larger margins of error.
In Lehigh County, for example, Census data estimates 1,921 rental units listed as vacant and available for rent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 454.
An additional 212 units are classified as rented but not yet occupied, plus or minus 125, according to detailed ACS tables.
The largest category is “other vacant” (3,427 plus or minus 554), which includes units off-market, abandoned or in legal limbo.
Anna Smith, director of Community Action Development Bethlehem, said the margin of error can’t be ignored.
Once it’s factored in, this year’s vacancy estimate overlaps with prior years, meaning the apparent increase may reflect statistical noise rather than a real shift in the market.
"There’s a chance that there was no actual increase in rental vacancies,” Smith said, noting that while the one-year Census data shows a jump, “the margin of error also increases substantially, to the point that the ranges overlap.”
Because of that uncertainty — and the lag built into Census methodology — Smith said her organization and others often rely on real-time market indicators, such as online listings, to gauge availability.
“What’s actually available out on the market versus a property that’s technically vacant are two very different things,” she said.
She pointed to long-empty units that effectively are unavailable because of price, condition or landlord practices.
That distinction is critical, said Veronne Demesyeux, associate executive director of New Bethany, Inc., which provides eviction prevention and housing stabilization services.
“A vacant unit doesn’t mean it’s accessible,” Demesyeux said. “It doesn’t mean someone can afford it, and it doesn’t mean they can qualify for it.”
Lehigh County Executive Josh Siegel said the gap between vacancy data and eviction filings reflects a deeper imbalance in the market.
“It’s a symptom of a deeply broken, dysfunctional housing market,” Siegel said. “Evictions are the extreme, downstream consequence of wildly unaffordable housing.
"They’re not isolated events — they’re a product of the fact that we don’t have enough modestly or moderately affordable workforce housing.”
Rents continue to climb
Despite the potential rise in vacancies, rents continued to increase across the Lehigh Valley.
Census data shows median gross rent reached $1,487 in Lehigh County and $1,486 in Northampton County in 2024, increases from the year before.
“It’s often one missed paycheck, one medical issue, one car repair. People don’t have a cushion anymore.”Veronne Demesyeux of New Bethany Ministries
Most rental units now fall between $1,000 and $1,999 per month, with a growing share renting for more than $2,000.
As a result, more than half — at least 54% — of Lehigh County renters spend at least 30% of their income on housing, a standard benchmark where the renter is considered cost-burdened.
In Northampton County, at least 50% of renters fall into that category.
Spending more than 30% often leaves insufficient funds for necessities such as food, transportation and health care, officials say.
Spending more than 50% of income on rent is classified as "severely cost-burdened."
“That financial stress shows up very quickly when something goes wrong” — whether it’s a job disruption, illness or another unexpected expense, Smith said.
“If I miss one month, I’m going to be out. That’s the reality for a lot of people.”
Demesyeux said many of the households with whom New Bethany works were stable until a single disruption tipped them into crisis.
“It’s often one missed paycheck, one medical issue, one car repair,” she said. “People don’t have a cushion anymore.”
Eviction filings exceed state average
That strain is increasingly visible in eviction courts.
Monthly eviction filings tracked by the Civil Court Data Initiative show that Lehigh County’s eviction filing rate has exceeded the statewide average every month since February 2024.
In December alone, there were 676 eviction filings and defaults — the highest monthly total since August 2023, when filings reached 714.
Since 2020, Lehigh County has recorded more than 34,736 filings, translating to a rate of 13.41% per 100 renter households.
That's the third-highest rate among Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, with a poverty rate of 11.8%.
“If half of renters are spending more than 30% of their income on housing, it doesn’t take much to tip someone into crisis.”Lehigh County Executive Josh Siegel
In the same time frame, Northampton County has recorded more than 13,809 filings.
It had three months last year in which filings exceeded the state average, including 277 filings in July — the highest one-month total since September 2020, amid COVID-19, when there were 290 filings.
Siegel said the volume and speed of filings reflect how much leverage landlords hold in the current market.
“When you have a housing shortage this severe, landlords have enormous leverage,” he said. “If half of renters are spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing, it doesn’t take much to tip someone into crisis.”
“The eviction itself is not the cause. It’s the end result of a market that has been allowed to stay this out of balance.”
'An endless cycle'
Court records reviewed locally show many eviction filings appear to be initiated after just one missed rent payment, often for amounts equal to a single month’s rent plus fees.
“When someone is already cost-burdened, there’s no room to recover,” Demesyeux said. “Once fees and court costs get added on, it becomes almost impossible.”
She said the eviction timeline also moves far faster than any assistance can.
“People get a 10-day notice to quit,” Demesyeux said. “Once you get that notice to quit, the landlord can file, and you have 10 days to respond. After that, you can have a court date between 10 and 15 days later.”
By contrast, she said, most rental assistance programs operate on much longer timelines.
“Any process that we have for rental assistance can take anywhere from four to six weeks,” Demesyeux said.
“There’s no real proper lineup. We can’t just accept the call and say, ‘OK, yes, we can pay your rent tomorrow.’ It’s an application process.”
That process includes eligibility reviews based on available funding, documentation requirements and landlord participation.
“Once we get the paperwork from you, we still need to contact your landlord and see if they’re willing to do paperwork,” she said.
“It’s this endless cycle of things that need to be done before we can even say, ‘Yes, we’ll be able to help.’”
Policy proposals target eviction pressures
At the same time, eviction practices also have shifted.
As more properties move from small, local landlords to corporate ownership and professional property management firms, decisions are increasingly driven by standardized policy rather than discretion.
“One month late, past the requisite time period, and you’re in court.”Veronne Demesyeux of New Bethany Ministries
“When it’s a property manager, there’s very little flexibility,” Smith said. “One month late, past the requisite time period, and you’re in court.”
Demesyeux echoed that shift.
“We see far less negotiation than we used to,” she said. “There’s less willingness to work something out, even when the tenant has a plan.”
Siegel said the scale of eviction filings also raises questions about whether the current court structure is equipped to handle housing disputes fairly.
“I think we need a designated judicial body where housing is the sole civil responsibility,” he said. “That gives everyone equal footing and allows cases to be handled with consistency, preparation and context.”
He said access to legal counsel earlier in the process can be stabilizing.
“If somebody knows they’re behind and understands their rights, they can prepare,” Siegel said. “That alone can change outcomes.”
'Prevent eviction before it starts'
Last week, Gov. Josh Shapiro introduced the Housing Action Plan, the first comprehensive statewide housing strategy in Pennsylvania’s history.
The plan aims to increase housing supply, lower costs and strengthen tenant protections.
But it hinges largely on decisions by a divided state legislature and other outside actors, rather than actions Shapiro's administration can take on its own.
The plan does not attach specific dollar figures to its initiatives, instead urging local governments to permit more housing — and a wider range of housing types — while calling on builders to increase construction and collaborate with municipalities to dismantle barriers to development.
Among its proposals are expanded eviction protections, limits on how much landlords can collect as security deposits, a statewide cap on rental application fees, and a ban on denying housing based on lawful sources of income, including public assistance.
For Demesyeux, those changes focus on preventing displacement before it begins.
“If you can reduce those upfront barriers, you prevent the eviction before it ever starts,” she said. “That’s where stability really begins.”
