The forecast looks awfully familiar, but could a potential weekend storm swing and miss?

• The upcoming weekend could be a carbon copy of last weekend, meteorologists say
• That would mean a rainy Saturday, a breezy Sunday and temperatures falling off
• Models are in agreement on evolution, but one kicks Saturday's storm off the coast and leaves us dry

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — If the Lehigh Valley weather forecast feels familiar, it’s because an end-of-the-week system is once again being watched closely by meteorologists.

But could it miss?

“I will tell you the end-of-the-week system is not a slam dunk,” EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said in his latest video forecast.

“The GFS [model] thinks it is. It has consistently been showing the same idea, or generally the same idea.”

That idea involves increasing clouds on Thursday before showers arrive late in the day on Friday — more likely in the evening and overnight.

Rain then would continue for some areas well into the afternoon on Saturday before the system pulls off to the north and east.

‘There is a model that’s suggesting differently’

If you’re looking for a second opinion, Martrich said the European model is offering one.

“But just because it’s going to show what you want to see doesn’t make it right,” Martrich said with a laugh, noting how the model has been “terrible on several of these synoptic events.”

The European model shows no rain in the forecast Friday, with one system that just scrapes the coast. Another pulls well offshore on Saturday and leaves the region completely dry.

The National Weather Service weighs in

The National Weather Service said models are in good agreement on the general pattern evolution late this week into the weekend, but obviously have other key details to resolve.

For now, the pattern shows a low-pressure system near the Great Lakes transferring toward a coastal low Friday night or early Saturday. That low then would intensify as it lifts northeastward near New England on Saturday.

If it verifies, that solution would mean occasional light rain and mild temperatures on Friday. Saturday could then feature steadier rain, or more showery weather, but highs closer to 60.

Our first frost on the way?

The Lehigh Valley has watched temperatures fall into the 30s a few times this month, but so far it hasn’t been cold enough for frost.

That could change early next week.

“We could see some rather gusty west-northwest winds in the wake of the intensifying low near New England Saturday night or Sunday, as the cold air flows in from the northwest,” the weather service forecast discussion said.

It means highs on Sunday and Monday (Oct. 22-23) will be in the 50s for much of our area.

As winds ease and skies clear early next week, it could finally bring the first frost of the season for portions of the region.

The Lehigh Valley’s latest frost on record occurred Nov. 4, 1971.