NOTE: There is an update to this story. Read it HERE.
BETHLEHEM, Pa. — A coastal storm is on track to impact the region this weekend, but forecasters say the latest guidance has reduced snowfall totals and impacts across the area.
It comes as models suggest the storm’s orientation to the coast and lack of rapid intensification “will mean an easterly surface flow that will prevail through the first half of the event,” the National Weather Service said in its latest forecast discussion.
That would bring above freezing temperatures well inland into the Interstate 95 corridor and perhaps eventually even further west toward the I-78 corridor, the discussion said.
The result is a change to sleet or rain that appears more probable all the way into our area, reducing snowfall totals.
“A winter storm watch was considered for Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties,” the weather service said, but its meteorologists now will allow for continued assessment as to whether any watches will be needed.
The Weather Prediction Center, in an update early Thursday, also put the "axis" of heavy snow north of the Lehigh Valley.
There is increasing confidence that the first significant winter storm of 2024 will bring ice and snow from the Southern Appalachians through New England. Hazardous travel is likely into the weekend. pic.twitter.com/IG3dbZN1XL
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) January 4, 2024
Here’s the latest:
How the storm will come together
Forecasters say a system will eject out of the Gulf Coast on Friday. As it progresses northeastward, the latest trend is for the storm to remain close to the coast by Saturday night.
Unless there's a significant shift in the placement, which still is possible, that would result in a warmer solution.
“An Arctic air mass associated with a high will be located well to our north across southeast Canada, and our area will not be able to tap into its air mass,” the weather service said.
Timing and totals
Snow is expected to work its way from southwest to northeast and into the Lehigh Valley by Saturday afternoon.
Precipitation likely will reach a peak in intensity and coverage Saturday evening and taper off overnight.
EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich also cautioned the storm would be moving “rather quickly” over the area.
EPAWA's 1/4 and week ahead outlook, covering:
— Bobby Martrich | EPAWA (@epawawx) January 4, 2024
■ Breezy trough brings colder air arriving Thursday
■ Latest breakdown of the weekend Winter storm
■ Another system next week, may have wintry starthttps://t.co/SShpJFIPYk
“This is going to end by daybreak on Sunday,” he said in his latest video update. “We’re probably not going to have much on Sunday, except for maybe a lingering snow shower here and there.”
As of Thursday morning, the weather service projected roughly 1 to 4 inches of snow between the I-95 and I-78 corridors.
North of I-78, it projected amounts of 4 to 6 inches.
Overall, those were the early Thursday projections for the low end, expected, and possible high-end amounts from the storm:
Low end amounts: as low as 1 inch in the Lehigh Valley
Expected snowfall: 3.1 inches
High end amount: Up to 8 inches
Concern beyond the weekend
According to the weather service, our next storm system will begin to approach the region Tuesday morning and “will likely end up being the more impactful of the two systems in the long term.”
“While unlikely to bring about wintry precipitation, concerns for widespread heavy rainfall and flooding will return,” the forecast discussion said.
It comes after the Lehigh Valley set a new record for precipitation in the month of December, with 8.62 inches of rain.
