Lots of snow or whole lot of no? All eyes on potential winter storm next week

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Is the Lehigh Valley about to see a true winter storm with powdery, fluffy snow?

The weather pattern not only remains active — with another flood watch on Friday — it includes a chance of yet another coastal system impacting the region early next week.

Meteorologists aren’t sounding the alarm just yet, with the National Weather Service describing it as “a challenging forecast for the long-term.”

In other words, they can’t say with any confidence yet if we’ll get snow, let alone how much.

But there’s one key ingredient available that could help turn the area into a winter wonderland.

An Arctic blast ahead

Following another burst of rain Friday night, the region should dry out over the weekend as bitterly cold air pushes into the region.

The Lehigh Valley will see wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph on Saturday, which could be strong enough to pull down trees and power lines because of overly saturated soil.

It’ll also remain breezy on Sunday, forecasters say, while daytime highs reach the low- to mid-30s and overnight lows fall into the teens.

It’s going to remain chilly next week, potentially timing precipitation with the coldest air mass of the season thus far.

The case for snow

Despite the large spread among guidance, there are a few checkmarks to note if you’re on “Team Snow.”

Some models, including the GFS, show development of a coastal low-pressure system moving northeast early in the week.

The upper-level pattern supports that storm moving northeastward and strengthening “due to increased baroclinic support,” the weather service said in its morning forecast discussion.

Changes in barometric pressure are among the many weather conditions meteorologists watch to predict snowstorms.

Additionally, the Weather Prediction Center’s Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook has the Lehigh Valley inside an area in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame for moderate winter impacts.

“Snow is likely on the periphery of the advancing Arctic air mass from the interior South into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday and possibly into the Northeast into mid-week,” it said in a Facebook post.

The case against snow

If you're "Team No Snow," here's the scenario you're rooting for.

Meteorologists know the models and their strengths, weaknesses and biases, EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said Wednesday.

The European model, Martrich said, is usually the most reliable when it comes to winter forecasting.

But on Wednesday, it was “working opposite its known biases” and kept the upcoming storm “very progressive and far southeast of the area. Not even a flake across our region with this particular model.”

As forecasters also commonly warn, it’s just too early to discuss the exact details regarding the development and track of any system this far out.

“There is a large spread among deterministic guidance on the exact track the coastal low pressure will take, making for a challenging forecast,” the weather service said.

“If the low stays closer to the eastern coast, it means our region could see precipitation. If the low is further offshore, the region could see no precipitation at all.”

In short, the uncertainty about the storm track leads to a number of possible scenarios that play against the area getting a blockbuster storm, including a weak or sheared outcome that brings little or no snow.

“It all deals with how fast the cold air is coming in,” Martrich said. “It’s a timing issue, that’s all this is.”

Then he repeated two words that at least give snow a chance: “We’ll see.”