BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Springlike weather drove plenty of people outdoors on Sunday, with the Lehigh Valley reaching 64 degrees — some 18 degrees above normal for early March.
But forecasters say a parade of storms could easily produce 2 to 3 inches of rain or more over the next week.
If we’re fortunate, we may see a little bit of sunshine Monday afternoon before it disappears until Friday.
“We really don’t need any more rain and we’re going to get a lot of that this week, unfortunately,” EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said in his latest video forecast.
EPAWA's 3/4 and week ahead outlook, covering:
— Bobby Martrich | EPAWA (@epawawx) March 4, 2024
■ Soggy stretch for the upcoming week as a whole
■ Timing of the showers tonight and into Tuesday
■ Two additional systems midweek, next weekendhttps://t.co/azNbheMWdN
Monday, Friday dry, soggy between
The start and end of the work week should bookend some rather wet weather, beginning with rain overnight Monday into Tuesday.
That system will arrive in the form of a weak, cutoff low, the National Weather Service said in its latest forecast discussion.
The low is expected to track up the coast similar to the system on Saturday — which delivered almost an inch of rain — and the latest guidance has trended the heaviest precipitation footprint slightly further west, forecasters said.
The region is expecting precipitation totals generally in the half-inch to 1-inch range, with rainfall beginning in the early morning hours Tuesday and ending in the Lehigh Valley in the afternoon.
“No significant impacts are anticipated other than to continue to prime the rivers ahead of another event later in the week,” the weather service said.
A brief break in between the rain
As the first system departs by Tuesday night, forecasters anticipate an 18- to 24-hour break in precipitation ahead of the next system. It will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, remaining in the vicinity on Thursday.
“Cyclogenesis is anticipated to occur across the Southeast Tuesday night, with the surface low lifting northeast and reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday night, then departing offshore into Thursday,” the weather service forecast discussion said.
Rainfall is expected to overspread the region from south to north during the late morning and afternoon Wednesday and depart late overnight into Thursday.
Forecasters say the system could bring “locally moderate to heavy rainfall rates at times,” with storm total rainfall amounts currently forecast to range from around 1 to 2 inches area wide, with the greatest amounts closer to the coast.
“Given the antecedent rain events and soggy ground, this may result in some minor flooding of low lying and urban areas and could result in some river flooding as well,” the weather service said.
North to northwest winds also are expected to pick up, with sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible.
The good news?
“Temperatures this week are going to be milder than average, but nothing extreme,” Martrich said, noting it will carry through the entire seven-day forecast period.
‘Rain, not snow’ to end the week
The final system of the week will arrive Saturday, but the forecast still is highly uncertain with timing and total precipitation.
“It will be rain, not snow,” Martrich said.
“We don’t really see any support for any snow in our area. We’ll have to watch the highest elevations in northeast PA, maybe for some flakes or something, but it’s nothing that will require an area-wide snow map.”
