‘Significant’ winter storm still tracking this way; a 'thump' of snow for Lehigh Valley?

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Love it or hate it, Lehigh Valley residents likely will see a wintry mess from a significant coastal storm coming this week.

That’s the word from the National Weather Service, with predictions of a storm still on track for the region beginning at some point Thursday with a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain, turning to rain.

Here’s what we know and what we don’t so far:

Timing

Forecasters expect precipitation to begin overspreading the area in earnest Thursday from southwest to northeast, reaching northern areas by afternoon, but the timing still is up in the air.

Folks in the Lehigh Valley should prepare for wintry precipitation by early afternoon, with a messy evening commute.

Snow, or no?

It’s expected the precipitation will begin as sleet and freezing rain for points south of the Lehigh Valley, mainly down near the Interstate-95 corridor.

For our area, meteorologists believe it should be mainly snow at the start. However, as we go through the afternoon and evening, milder air will start getting drawn in from the east, causing a change to mainly rain from south to north.

“Wintry precip will last longer farther north, where it may persist through most of the day for places like the Lehigh Valley and points northward into the southern Poconos,” the weather service said in its latest forecast discussion.

“However, even in much of this region the initial snow should start to mix with sleet and freezing rain as warmer air moves in aloft.”

'A very stormy night'

By Thursday evening, the coastal low is expected to be over eastern Virginia and track slowly north through the night.

“This will mean a very stormy night and it is during this time we should see the heaviest precip and strongest winds,” the weather service said, predicting heavy rain and some localized flooding issues along the coast.

Precipitation types are expected to be a little trickier across the Interstate-78 to Interstate-80 corridor, where it could remain more of a wintry mix. But forecasters say that's where there's less certainty regarding the details of the forecast.

Winds will be the other story Thursday night, with east winds of 20 to 30 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph along the coast.

The current projections

Right now, the weather service is projecting for upward of 3 to 6 inches of snow along with up to 0.1 of an inch of ice for the southern Poconos through early Friday, with amounts tapering farther south.

“But again, confidence [is] still low regarding these amounts,” the forecast discussion says.

EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said he'll have a snow map and first calls out by 5 p.m. Tuesday, and still is watching how the storm will track.

Some models show what Martrich called a "pretty good thump" of snow for the area on the front end of the storm.