ALLENTOWN, Pa. — Local voters in a special election could shift the balance of power in Harrisburg when they head to the polls Tuesday to elect their next state representative.
Residents of Allentown and Salisbury Township will choose between Democrat Ana Tiburcio, an Allentown School Board director, and Republican Robert E. Smith Jr., a former school board director, to represent the 22nd state House District for the next nine months.
The winner will complete the term of Josh Siegel, who resigned in December to become Lehigh County executive.
The 22nd District represents the Allentown neighborhoods of Center City and East Allentown, along with the eastern part of Salisbury Township.
"It's hard, but not impossible. Republicans have some of those needed elements in place. Democrats have made some errors."Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College
State House Democrats currently hold a two-seat majority thanks to five vacancies.
Maintaining that majority will be critical for Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat seeking re-election, as he pursues legislation to raise the minimum wage, legalize marijuana and regulate skill games.
The General Assembly is currently split between the Democratic-controlled House and the Republican-controlled state Senate.
But if Republicans can win either of Tuesday's special elections — there's another in Allegheny County's 42nd District — they could regain the speaker's gavel if they successfully defend three upcoming special elections scheduled for March and May.
None of the five races is considered competitive districts.
Voter registration totals in Tuesday's special elections overwhelmingly favor Democrats, while registered Republicans have a significant edge in the 79th, 193rd and 196th districts.
Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College, said Smith is a longshot candidate to win the 22nd. But given the stakes and some unusual circumstances, Republicans may have reason for optimism.
Borick compared the situation to buying a lottery ticket — a low-risk opportunity with a small chance for a huge reward.
"It's hard, but not impossible," he said. "Republicans have some of those needed elements in place. Democrats have made some errors."
'A lottery ticket'
Unlike in general elections, candidates in special elections are handpicked by the party insiders.
Local Democrats originally rallied around Julian Guridy, an aide to state Sen. Nick Miller, D-Lehigh/Northampton, as their standard bearer.
However, party officials discovered at the last minute that Guridy had not been a state resident for four consecutive years, and therefore was not eligible for the seat.
With the deadline looming, Democratic Party officials nominated Tiburcio, who hadn't sought the office and has kept a low-profile on the school board.
The decision has split the party. Following the only debate between Smith and Tiburcio, many prominent local Democrats — including former state representative candidate Enid Santiago and Lehigh County Commissioner Jon Irons — shared social media posts criticizing party leaders for selecting an unprepared candidate.
Still, headwinds are blowing against Smith, Borick said. Voter registration figures in the district grant Democrats a whopping 32-point edge over Republicans in the 22nd District.
Meanwhile, national polling shows voters are frustrated with President Donald Trump and Republicans over high cost-of-living expenses.
Last November saw Democrats in the Lehigh Valley and across the country win by significant margins, including Siegel's 21-point victory in the county executive race.
Low turnout likely; 'prelude' not
Low turnout is expected to further complicate the election.
The 22nd District already has a reputation for low turnout; only 10,126 people cast a ballot in the last contested district race back in 2022.
But the unusual nature of special elections tends to drive voter participation down even further, as irregular voters may not be aware of the race.
"The number of voters that will be necessary to win is probably not that large."Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College
"The number of voters that will be necessary to win is probably not that large," Borick said.
Lehigh County Chief Clerk of Elections Tim Benyo said Friday that only 1,271 people (4 percent) requested mail-in ballots for the special election out of 31,699 registered voters in the district.
It's unclear how much money is being funneled into the contest. Pennsylvania's campaign finance database shows Tiburcio filed her reports on time, but the documents have not been uploaded to the state website.
Smith, meanwhile, has spent a little under $3,200 on yard signs, launching a campaign website and campaign materials.
The House Republican Campaign Committee also picked up $2,411 of election literature printing costs for the Smith campaign.
Regardless of who wins, Borick said locals should not to read too much into the outcome of Tuesday's election.
Whichever party wins the election likely will promote it as a harbinger of things to come in the November election. But no two races are alike, and local politics and the quality of the candidates can shift campaigns in unexpected ways, Borick said.
"One thing I'm certain of is that any single race is going to be discussed as a clear sign," he said. "I would caution against the inevitable posturing."
