Will storm spare the Lehigh Valley a total weekend washout? Timing will be key, forecasters say

• A storm system expected to hit the area this weekend could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain
• Models are a bit more progressive and move the storm out of the area Sunday morning
• Rainy and windy weather can knock down our fall foliage, shortening the display of color at its peak

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — A powerful storm system expected to bring heavy rain to the region this weekend might not be a total washout, forecasters say.

“Overall, there have not been many major changes to the long-range forecast,” the National Weather Service said in a forecast discussion early Wednesday.

“That said, the one change that has been noted is that the forecast models are a little bit more progressive with the weekend system, meaning rain may taper off west to east earlier in the day Sunday, sparing the area a total ‘weekend washout.’”

Uncertainty as storm moves east

The storm is expected to bring snow to the Rockies and severe thunderstorms to parts of the central Plains before barreling eastward and drenching the Lehigh Valley.

According to the weather service, it continues to appear as though rain will overspread the region on Saturday morning, with the greatest potential for moderate to heavy rainfall from Saturday afternoon to Saturday night.

Many locations in the region could get 1 to 2 inches of rain. But the latest indications show the storm may be a bit faster to move out to sea, forecasters say.

That means the latter half of Sunday may end up being dry.

"I don't want to go all in on that idea just yet, but there are some indications Sunday may be a dry or mostly dry day," EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said in his latest video forecast.

Heavy rain, wind could affect fall foliage

Enough rain will fall to bring a risk of flooding in areas of poor drainage, forecasters say. Where leaves have fallen, roads may be slick, and blocked storm drains could be an issue.

The rain also will affect our leaf-peeping season.

Generally, the Valley hits peak in mid-to-late October, with leaves changing colors from north to south as the region moves into fall. However, temperatures and precipitation can change the schedule.

Experts say cold and sunny days promote more intense color from leaves, while rainy and windy weather can knock leaves down prematurely, shortening the color display at its peak.

A warm spell at the beginning of the month slowed the transition of color across the Commonwealth, according to the state Department of Conservation and Natural Resources.

A cooldown was expected to kickstart a strong progression of color, but now we’ll wait and see how the weekend storm affects foliage going forward.