Musikfest 2024 weather outlook: Officials prepared for warm, potentially stormy conditions expected

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — As Musikfest counts down toward its opening night, officials are hoping to mitigate impacts from another wave of summer heat, all while dealing with wildfire smoke drifting back into the region.

The 11-day festival, which kicks off Thursday, could welcome crowds with heat indices in the 90s.

"Thursday, which is Preview Night, might be the most hot and humid day of the festival," said meteorologist Bobby Martrich, whose EPAWA Weather Consulting is the exclusive weather forecast provider for Musikfest.

It comes as the Lehigh Valley slogs through its fourth-hottest summer on record thus far, with temperatures running 1.5 degrees above average.

Now, with the start of the festival just days away, the Climate Prediction Center once again is calling for widespread excessive heat over much of the U.S. into early August.

Martrich said temperatures won't be as warm as our last heat wave, when highs in the mid to upper 90s put "feels like" temperatures in the triple digits.

Even so, ArtsQuest CEO Kassie Hilgert said preparations are underway to help attendees and volunteers deal with the rise in temperatures.

“We have misting fans at Festplatz. We also have that at the Wind Creek Steel Stage. There's air conditioning in the ArtsQuest Center, of course, and also the merchandise tent at Liederplatz has air conditioning,” Hilgert said.

“A lot of the platzes have tents out of the direct sunlight, with ample seating there, so that helps. Certainly we’ll also have cold beverages for sale across the entire event. Some of the official sponsors of the festival, like [McCarthy’s] Red Stag Pub and Hotel Bethlehem, also have air conditioning."

EMS, Health Bureau, LVHN on site

Through the weekend, the average mean temperature stood at 74.7 degrees, 0.1 degrees higher than 2010, the next-hottest summer to date. Last year at this time, the area’s average temperature was 71 degrees.

So far, the Lehigh Valley has racked up 18 days at or above 90, about four more than average for the season. And while temperatures have cooled since the last heat wave, dew points (for the most part) have not.

The dew point, or a measure of how much moisture is in the atmosphere, is the main indicator for how it will feel outside.

With long-range forecasts showing both temperatures and dew points on the rise, Hilgert said Lehigh Valley Health Network will have health stations at four different locations at Musikfest — Zinzenplatz, Festplatz, Familianplatz and at the Wind Creek Steel Stage.

The stations “will have medical staff to assist anyone with any medical issues that may arise,” Hilgert said.

In addition, the Bethlehem Health Bureau will be on site, along with EMS on both the North and South sides of the festival during all hours to respond to any emergency needs.

Sultry nights, wildfire smoke

It’s not just the fact that heat indices could push into the 90s through much of the festival.

It’s that Musikfest will have to contend with warm nights as well — a time period where temperatures have been even more impressive than daytime highs for much of the summer.

The low temperature has been 70 degrees or higher on 12 nights this season, and the Lehigh Valley also has posted record warm high lows twice this season. On July 6, the minimum temperature was 77, and on June 23 it was 71.

With the likelihood of above-average temperatures also comes instability and chances for showers and storms, and Hilgert said patrons should check the Musikfest app and Musikfest.org for any weather-related disruptions.

"I think the heat sticks around until about August 8th," Martrich said.

"The 8th is still going to be kind of warm yet, and then a cold front moves in around that time that will be accompanied by scattered showers and storms. But it will be diurnally-driven, heat-of-the-day type stuff."

The one thing the app won’t be able to monitor is real-time air quality in the region, which could be an issue due to the return of wildfire smoke originating from fires across the West and in Canada.

“Noticing a haziness to the sky? That is due to the smoke spreading into the region aloft from the wildfires in western North America,” the National Weather Service said on X Sunday afternoon.

“We’ll likely experience a smoky sky to some degree for the foreseeable future as the numerous fires continue,” the post said.

While early waves of the smoke have not heavily impacted air quality at ground level, things could change.

"The good news is, by the weekend a westerly flow of air should help," Martrich said. "You run into more trouble if you get that northwesterly flow. But at Musikfest, people certainly won't be at a high enough elevation to smell smoke.

"The origin point of those wildfires also means the smoke has a long way to travel, moderate and elevate. So I don’t think it’s going to necessarily be the heat or an air quality issue we're talking about [as a weather headline]. It's the festival potentially dodging storms on multiple days."