BETHLEHEM, Pa. — There’s an unmistakable crunch underfoot in the Lehigh Valley — leaves are starting to brown and falling to the ground, collecting on sidewalks and lawns.
“I am noticing some leaf drop around,” Ryan Reed, a natural resource program specialist with the state Department of Conservation and National Resources, said.
“Your typical offenders, if you will. There's some maple leaves on the ground, and cherry and birch and some others, and I don't really view that as being all that unusual. It's been very dry.”
Similar to last year, the Valley’s cool temperatures, coupled with a lack of precipitation, could cause an earlier and shorter fall foliage season.
However, that doesn’t mean leaves won’t be vibrant.
“You should have a more vivid display. It just might be a little bit shorter of a period of peak.”Ryan Reed, a natural resource program specialist with the state Department of Conservation and National Resources
“If we see an accelerated season where things are happening a little sooner than what we've been accustomed to, it generally does mean that the season will be a bit contracted,” Reed said.
“But the bright side of that, literally, is that the foliage should be more vibrant. You should have a more vivid display. It just might be a little bit shorter of a period of peak.”
‘The big, big difference’
Fall foliage in the Valley generally peaks in mid- to late-October, but the season is incredibly weather-dependent — and the region has been colder and dryer than average.
While there were some warm days, August temperatures turned cool, and they’ve stuck around, EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich said.
“We had a couple days of mid-August, right after Musikfest ended, that got up in the 90s," Martrich said.
"But then after that, the second half of the month, or last 10 days of the month of August, did turn cooler, and it's been kind of cooler ever since, relative to average, but it did the same thing last year.”
While the cool temperatures are similar to last year, precipitation is not.
“We're already almost double that this month, and it's because of one day."EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich
Last year, the Valley saw a wetter-than-average August, a little more than 1 inch above normal.
“This year, August was about 3 inches below average,” he said. “So that's the big, big difference.”
But there has been more rain so far this month than in September of last year.
“We're already almost double that this month, and it's because of one day,” Martrich said.
On Sept. 4, the area saw record rainfall. It was more than the area saw the entire month of August, and the first substantial rainfall for the area since 1.03 inches fell July 1.
Overall, though, the Valley is in a precipitation deficit, behind by 7.62 inches for the current water year.
The water year is a 12-month period that's used to track water supply and high flow statistics. It begins Oct. 1 and ends Sept. 30 of the following year.
And the dry pattern doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon.
“There doesn't appear to be much in terms of precipitation over the next couple of weeks either,” Martrich said.
“We have a few systems coming through, but they're not really that noteworthy. They're not gonna really do too much — not the big, organized areas of low pressure that just kind of sit and give you a soaker kind of rain.”
The nearest chance of rain is the end of next week, he said.
‘The perfect recipe for fall color’
Cooler temperatures, coupled with dryness, are causing the leaves to change earlier, experts said.
Foresters in the northern tier of the state have reported some early color on some maple, birch and cherry trees, as well as black gum and some of the other earlier-turning species, such as Staghorn sumac, Reed said.
“It’s like the perfect recipe for fall color."Ryan Reed, a natural resource program specialist with the state Department of Conservation and National Resources
“It’s definitely a little sped up this year, and I have a strong suspicion that's linked to how dry it's been, as well as the cool pattern that we've been in recently,” he said.
“It’s like the perfect recipe for fall color. You get those cooler daytime highs, cooler nighttime temperatures, coupled with dryness, and that tends to accelerate the color change.”
The lack of rain doesn’t entirely hinder this season’s prospects. In fact, leaf-peeping prognosticators would generally rather see dry weather than wet.
“We had a really strong growing season — a few rogue leaves that fall due to the dryness right now does not worry me at all,” Reed said.
“Our forests are pretty adaptable when it comes to dry periods. They seem a little less adaptable to when it's extremely wet, and that would worry me a lot more for the fall color.”
But it will make for a shorter season.
“A lot of times, peak can last anywhere from six to 10 days, something like that,” Reed said.
“I would expect that to be on the lower end of that spectrum this year, maybe five or six days of really intense peak color that kind of flames out quickly.”
‘You don't want to miss it’
Reed, who is in his ninth year of forecasting fall foliage for the state, generally posts the first forecast in early October on the DCNR’s website.
This season, with the earlier change and shorter peak expected, he plans to post it Sept. 25, he said.
“It’s all the more reason to get out there and enjoy it."Ryan Reed, a natural resource program specialist with the state Department of Conservation and National Resources
“It’s all the more reason to get out there and enjoy it,” Reed said.
“When you see those peak forecasts, for people who are enthusiastic about fall foliage season, like myself, that just kind of ramps up the desire to really get out there and see it and experience it.
“It's one of those things that we look forward to every year, and you don't want to miss it if you're the type of person who gets excited about fall color.”
However, there’s going to be some changes this year in reporting, to make the forecasts more accessible.
The digital staff at the DCNR is working to make the forecasts more front-and-center on the agency’s website, he said. They’ll also have a “revamped look” for the map and the report.
“One of those factors means making it accessible to folks who may be colorblind, introducing some markings in the legend that help people differentiate the areas of color,” Reed said.
“That is another priority of our administration and our staff, as well as the overarching administration, Gov. [Josh] Shapiro’s administration, is that we make our impact accessible to all.
"And I just can't think of a better way to share the splendor of the season than to make it accessible to more Pennsylvanians.”
