A transition weekend for the Lehigh Valley, but will a government shutdown affect weather forecasts?

• The looming federal government shutdown does not affect National Weather Service operations
• Employees are considered essential and will continue day-to-day operations
• Behind the scenes, some things could be curtailed until the shutdown is over

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — As a coastal storm moves slowly to the east of the area this weekend, it will mark a big transition in the Lehigh Valley’s weather.

A few showers are expected to linger before clearing on Saturday, and temperatures are expected to rise during a much quieter period next week.

That’s a good thing, with a federal government shutdown looming. But will critical weather information come to a halt?

What a shutdown means for the NWS

The National Weather Service is considered an essential agency responsible for providing accurate, timely and potentially life-saving information.

In fact, its forecast office in Mount Holly, New Jersey, warned early Friday of flash flooding possible for a large swath of its coverage area due to the coastal storm.

A persistent Atlantic moisture transport was overrunning a coastal front, bulletins said, with heavy rainfall and numerous instances of flash flooding across parts of the Interstate 95 corridor from central and northern New Jersey through far southeast New York and into western Connecticut.

To that end, a shutdown would not affect NWS operations to protect lives and property and — as during past shutdowns — staff will continue all critical functions.

Behind the scenes, some things could change

During previous government shutdowns, weather models were not maintained, launched or improved and emergency managers were not being trained, reports said.

Elsewhere, stream gauges typically maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey weren’t being calibrated, which means they weren’t making accurate measurements of how much water was flowing into rivers.

The effects also stretched beyond when the government finally reopened. That’s because much of the weather information we see from broadcast meteorologists (TV news) and private forecasters still comes from information derived from models operated by the U.S. government.

From the “American model” — the Global Forecast System — to those much more narrowly focused, they’re under the control of the NWS.

Additionally, weather service forecasters launch weather balloons, collect the data and ingest it into computer models.

None of that changed before or will change this time, but community outreach from NWS offices, such as storm spotter training and other public service activities, likely would be be curtailed.

A look ahead

The Lehigh Valley should see a stretch of nice days and mostly sunny skies next week, forecasters say. Monday through Wednesday also will bring a period of above-normal temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Temperatures are expected to be closer to normal by Thursday ahead of another storm system that could potentially arrive at the end of the week.