BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Northampton County Executive-elect Tara Zrisnki called it a blue wave. Lehigh County Executive-elect Josh Siegel called it a landslide.
No matter how you slice it, Tuesday's election results marked an overwhelming victory for Democrats in the Lehigh Valley and across the country.
And early indicators in the Lehigh Valley suggest that a surge in turnout and support from independents played an important role.
Unofficial tallies out of Northampton County reported that 40% of voters cast a ballot in Tuesday's election. In Lehigh County, turnout was slightly lower at 37.8%.
While both figures pale in comparison to presidential elections, they are far greater than what's expected in local campaigns, said Christopher Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College. The last time these local offices were up for election in 2021, turnout was 33% in Northampton County and 30.9% in Lehigh County.
'Democrats were really unhappy'
Borick said off-year elections are often a referendum on the president. The surge in the polls and the results should serve as a clear sign that voters are dissatisfied with President Donald Trump. The early victories for Democrats in the state Supreme Court justice retention questions and the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races back up those findings, he said.
"The public is not happy right now, and in particular, Democrats are really unhappy."Chrisotpher Borick, Muhlenberg College political science professor
"You can't look at what happened in the Lehigh Valley and Pennsylvania without putting it in the conversation of what's happened at the federal level," he said.
"The public is not happy right now, and in particular, Democrats are really unhappy."
Working-class Americans have been sounding alarms about the rising costs of housing and basic goods for years, Borick said. But while many macro-economic indicators point to signs of a healthy economy, polls show that everyday voters aren't feeling that in their wallets, he said.
Democrats, meanwhile, have been even angrier as Trump pursues partisan politics and controversial policies, Borick said. While faith in the Democratic Party has been flagging, Democrats hammered home messages that Republicans weren't addressing like rising health care premiums and grocery prices, he said.
Throw in historic trends for the party out of power in Washington picking up victories in off-year elections, and it made for a recipe for success for Democrats.
"We've seen lots of indicators that this was going to be a good cycle for Democrats, but it was always juxtaposed against Democrats' own problems. Are people really going to go out and vote Democratic?" Borick said. "The answer ended up being yes."
'Can I trust this?'
Zrinski, a Democrat currently serving as county controller, said that she was confident going into the election that she would pull a victory in hyper-competitive Northampton County.
In the weeks leading up to the election, she went door-to-door to introduce herself to voters. Over and over again, she heard from residents who said they were fed up with federal Republicans and would vote straight Democrat, she said.
While she glad-handed voters outside of polls in Hanover Township and Bethlehem on Election Day, even some registered Republicans told her they planned to vote for her, she said.
"There were only maybe a handful who said they are voting Republican. I kept asking myself, 'Can I trust this?'" she said in an interview Wednesday.
It turns out she could.
Her apparent 19-point victory over Republican Tom Giovanni would be the most lopsided executive race this century in the battleground county. It also made her the county's first woman executive.
No executive candidate has dominated the county's polls since Glenn Reibman won about 60% of of the vote in 1997.
Independents backed Democrats
While no known exit polls exist in the Lehigh Valley, mail-in ballot results suggest independents swung heavily to Democrats this cycle.
State records show that in Northampton County, about 64% of requested mail-in ballots came from Democrats, about 24% came from Republicans and that about 12% came from independent voters. While the partisan breakdown of the returned mail-in ballots are unknown, the results of those ballots skew more Democratic than the data would suggest.
When Northampton County reported the bulk of its mail-in ballots around 8:10 p.m. Tuesday, Zrisnki and the state Supreme Court justices were winning their races with about 75% of the mail-in vote. Unless Republicans failed to turn in their mail-in ballots at a higher rate than Democrats and independents, it would suggest independents were supporting Democrats more than their Republican counterparts.
Similar comparisons can't be made in Lehigh County, where the bulk of mail-in ballots were reported with a mix of polling place results.
But the results were largely the same.
Siegel, a Democratic state representative, defeated Republican Roger MacLean by a 60.6% to 39.4% margin, according to unofficial results. The county executive race hasn't seen a blowout of that proportion since 2005 after incumbent Jane Ervin raised property taxes by 70%.
Borick said that local independents leaning to the left would mesh with exit polls taken in Virginia and New Jersey. There, Democratic gubernatorial candidates Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill found significant support from independent voters.
"Independents are key. They're a growing group in Pennsylvania. This cycle, they had a clear preference," Borick said.
Supreme Court measure
While races at the top of the ballot normally drive elections, Joe Vichot, chair of the Lehigh County Republican Committee, said the issues at the bottom of the ballot drove results this time.
Judicial retention questions are typically low priority races in Pennsylvania. Since their arrival in 1968, only one Supreme Court justice has lost retention.
But with three Democrats up for retention on Pennsylvania's high court, conservatives went all in to try and push them from office. If more than 50% of voters selected 'No' on the ballot, Republicans would have a shot to flip the court in 2027. Political action committees on both sides of the aisle spent millions this cycle to support their party.
"These retention votes appear to be the driving force based on their greater numbers than any countywide race."Joe Vichot, chair of the Lehigh County Republican Committee
Despite the added attention, the races didn't achieve different results. Across the state and in Lehigh County, the justices were retained after winning about 65% of the margin.
"These retention votes appear to be the driving force based on their greater numbers than any countywide race," Vichot wrote in an email. "Everyone else was along for the ride."
Given the results, Borick agreed that Republican candidates could not have done much different in a challenging political environment. Giovanni and MacLean could have raised more money or improved their messaging, but that may have only changed the scope of their defeats, he said.
Political observers often look to these elections to get a read on how the upcoming midterm elections could shake out, Borick said.
He expected the overwhelming Democratic victory may pressure some Republicans to reevaluate their relationship with Trump. While the president's support has proven critical in recent years, it may be a hindrance if voters are this motivated in the midterms.
"If I was a Republican today, I'd be clear-eyed. They were soundly defeated last night," Borick said.
