Mail-in ballots part of the trend that helped drive higher voter turnout once again

• For the second straight municipal election, turnout in the Lehigh Valley topped 30%
• Mail-in ballots are a factor, allowing Democrats to build up their margins and defy historical norms
• Other factors, such as national politics and party messaging, may also play a role in the uptick

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Lehigh Valley voters turned out in relatively high numbers Tuesday, continuing a recent stretch of growing voter participation in off-year elections.

Municipal races rarely generate the same energy or awareness as presidential or gubernatorial campaigns, and fewer voters head to the polls as a result. But while turnout Tuesday fell well short of the record voter participation the 2020 election saw, it cracked 30% for the second straight municipal election.

Unofficial results in Northampton County show 32% of registered voters cast a ballot Tuesday. Lehigh County's election website shows that 30.8% of voters participated in the election.

That's a far cry from the 21.5% who came out to vote in 2013 when Democrat Tom Muller edged out Republican Scott Ott in a Lehigh County executive race that saw record spending. Similarly, just 19% of voters showed up to vote in Northampton County that year when little-known Bangor Mayor John Brown upset Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan for county executive.

Vote By mail

What was a major factor in the uptick of voters? Mail-in ballots, said Republican strategist Dean Browning. The former Lehigh County commissioner said Democrats have made shrewd use of the ballots to get infrequent voters involved in local elections. The voting option, which came online in Pennsylvania in 2020 during the pandemic, gives voters more time — and thus more opportunities — to vote for candidates, he said.

Then-President Donald Trump immediately cast doubts about the integrity and security of the new mail-in system, leading Republicans to avoid the system. That didn't stop Democrats from immediately embracing it. About 70% of the mail-in ballots shipped to Lehigh Valley voters this November went to Democrats. Republicans requested less than 20% of those ballots by comparison.

For decades, Republicans did well in Lehigh County — even though they had fewer registered voters than Democrats — thanks to their superior turnout. But the mail-in ballots have changed the margins, and Democrats are getting enough voters to the polls to win races Republicans used to pull out, he said.

"That's the method they use to take advantage of their edge," Browning said.

Earlier this year, Browning started the Win Again PAC, which is trying to convince infrequent conservative voters to adopt mail-in voting. This election, their first in action, didn't go well. Win Again lacked the resources to go door-to-door and make their case directly to registered Republicans. That level of commitment will be required if the GOP hopes to replicate Democrats mail-in ballot network, he said.

Larger Republican organizations haven't committed to running a shoe-leather ground game, he said. While Democrats text their voters' daily reminders to get their mail-in ballots in, the Republican Party sent a single postcard telling them mail-in ballots were an option, Browning said.

"Trying to get them to shift gears and say we need to be the boots on the ground, we need to be the infrastructure that will convince our voters to vote by mail — it's going to take effort to accomplish that," said Browning.

Christopher Borick, professor of political science at Muhlenberg College, wasn't convinced mail-in ballots are the root cause of the surge in turnout. Factors such as shifting demographics of party voters and hot-button issues such as reproductive rights can motivate voters to get to the polls.

But mail-ins are likely a big part of the trend, he said. Plus, it would explain how Democrats have beaten historical precedent in recent years, he said. Normally, the party in control of the White House tends to lose ground in midterm elections like 2022 and municipal races like Tuesday's. Instead, Democrats retained control of the U.S. Senate last year and dominated hotly contested races like the East Penn School Board, Lehigh County commissioners and the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.

"I can't make the claim that it is the biggest driver we've seen the last few cycles, but I have every reason to believe its a contributing factor," Borick said.

Messaging matters

Lori McFarland, chair of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee acknowledged the mathematical advantages mail-in ballots provide the Democratic Party. But she said her voters appreciate them because it allows them to get more informed about the local races. With in-person voting, some voters only discover down-ballot races when they're at the polls, requiring them to leave a race blank or cast a vote blindly.

"It gives them an opportunity to research, to reach out. I get lots of phone calls from voters who want to know more about the candidates," she said. "They can make their decisions, and it's not going to be at the last minute."

But she attributed the spike in turnout to shifts in the political discourse. While Trump's unique brand of politics has allowed him to remake the Republican Party, its also turned off voters who didn't previously associate with the Democratic Party. While the Republican Party of old had been described as a big tent, the modern GOP is increasingly driving former supporters away with its focus on culture wars and divisive politics.

Local school board races this year featured presences from controversial national organizations such as Moms For Liberty. That set off a chain reaction that drove more people to the polls, ultimately to oppose the those efforts, she said.

"People are concerned because we've never seen the likes of MAGA [at the local level] and what its doing to people, so even those people who never really thought about politics before are paying attention," McFarland said.