BETHLEHEM, Pa. – One of politics’ worst kept secrets was exposed Tuesday night when former President Donald Trump announced he’ll seek a second term.
The real estate-mogul-turned-reality-TV-star-turned-politician kicked off his 2024 presidential campaign in an announcement from his Mar-a-Lago club. If successful, Trump would join Grover Cleveland as the only presidents to serve non-consecutive terms in the White House.
- Donald Trump announced the launch of his 2024 presidential campaign Tuesday night
- Trump and his surrogates have struggled in elections nationally and in Pennsylvania since 2016
- Despite his liabilities, few conservatives can compete with Trump’s popularity within the Republican Party
But while Trump has remade the Republican Party since he launched his political career in 2015, it’s not clear what appetite voters have for a return to the Trump presidency.
Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said Trump remains a force to be reckoned with within the party. Few can rival his popularity with Republican voters, but history suggests he’s got too much baggage to succeed in general elections.
After Trump’s historic win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, his party faced major setbacks in 2018 and he lost re-election in 2020. The 2022 election cycle saw voters reject most of the candidates he endorsed, including Pennsylvania’s Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano.
“There’s a lot of evidence that should make both the Republican Party and Republican voters question the former president’s impact,” Borick said.
That may not matter if the Republican primary is crowded, he said. In 2016, Trump emerged as the party candidate thanks in part to a historically large field of candidates. Trump was able to differentiate himself from the others, who split the votes of more traditional Republican voters.
Trump already has started leveling his unique brand of personal attacks against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, potential rivals for the Republican nomination. Observers say Trump is beatable, but a winning opponent must be able to withstand Trump’s withering attacks.
“It has to be somebody willing to go into that maelstrom and then have people rally around them as the alternative,” Borick said.
“There’s a lot of evidence that should make both the Republican Party and Republican voters question the former president’s impact."Christopher Borick
Even Lee Snover, the former chairman of the Northampton County Republican Committee and one of Trump’s earliest backers in Pennsylvania, wasn’t ready to immediately jump on his bandwagon Tuesday afternoon.
While Snover said she supported Trump’s politics, she acknowledged voters were facing “MAGA fatigue.” His penchant for personal attacks has turned off some voters, while others are too exhausted by his brand of politics.
The party also can’t afford bruising interparty warfare, she said. In 2016, many of the Republican candidates were out of touch with the standard Republican voter, she said. Elevating Trump to the presidency was a needed course correction for American politics.
Snover voiced frustration that Trump has already started attacking DeSantis and Youngkin, two candidates who followed Trump’s vein of politics.
“There’s a time and a place, and I don’t think his criticisms are working right now,” Snover said.
At the same time, Trump delivered results in a way many Republicans haven’t. The party should be tossing out leaders who failed to get results this midterm. Trump, however, energizes the base because voters are confident he’ll achieve his agenda, she said.
“Why has Ronna McDaniel not stepped down? Why are we even talking about Mitch McConnell?” Snover said, referring to the Republican National Committee Chair and Senate minority leader. “That’s why I’m still open-minded to Trump.”
