Lehigh Valley destined for continued fall warmth, outlooks say

BETHLEHEM, Pa. - November's temperatures are expected to skew warmer than average in the Lehigh Valley, allowing residents to keep heating costs down.

• The government's Climate Prediction Center says temperatures will be well above average this month
• The Lehigh Valley could see near-record temperatures by the weekend
• The back half of the month is more of a question mark, forecasts say

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, temperatures are expected to be warmer than average for much of the U.S., especially east of the Central Plains.

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey, says there's a possibility of record highs by the weekend, just as we "fall back" and end daylight saving.

The current forecast calls for highs in the low 70s. The record high for Allentown on Sunday, Nov. 6, is 78 degrees.

The historical average for this time of year is 57 degrees.

What's driving the pattern?

Meteorologists say high pressure will continue to shift southward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions this week, resulting in more sunshine, light winds and mild temperatures.

In weather parlance, high-pressure systems usually indicate fair, settled weather while low-pressure systems are associated with storms.

The weather service says a ridge (indicating sinking air or a deep, warm air mass) will build over the Eastern U.S., increasing a southerly flow of air and pushing temperatures well above average.

"The overall synoptic pattern argues that any approaching system and threat of rain will hold off until next week," the latest area forecast discussion says, though there's a chance of showers Saturday night or Sunday.

Meteorologists say we have a good shot at that near-record warmth around Sunday, especially if cloud cover and rain are delayed.

When will it start to feel more seasonal?

If you're a fan of cold temperatures, hoodies and seasonably-appropriate attire, forecasters say late November is more of a question mark.

Experts say some models are forecasting the possibility of a "Greenland block" — a pattern that would send cold air plunging into the U.S. late in the month.

Last year, it was 54 degrees on Thanksgiving Day. Our record high temperature for this year's holiday — Thursday, Nov. 24 — is 71 degrees.